The euro / dollar has consolidated gains last week , and not choosing a new direction for the movement. The main focus of traders this week will attract to yourself ECB interest rates and the accompanying press conference , as well as the final index of purchasing managers .
Let's talk about the most likely drivers for the pair EUR / USD for the current week in more detail.
Merkel won a landslide victory in Germany, but failed to win an absolute majority , causing the Germans have a long period of uncertainty and negotiations on the establishment of the coalition. The good news was the increase in the index of purchasing managers in the services sector , but the index of business sentiment in Germany disappointed traders. What can we expect from Draghi , given the more stringent conditions on the financial markets? Does the head of the ECB will announce a new round of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO)?
In the U.S., meanwhile approaching deadline , which would avoid the resignation of the government. In addition , the increased likelihood of a technical default , which puts pressure on the dollar.
So what is the next step a couple? Initiated a review of upcoming events :
Monday, September 30 .
At 6.00 GMT published data on the level of retail sales in Germany.
According to statistics , in July, sales fell by 1.4% in June - 0.8 %, which indicates the precariousness of the recovery of the European region 's largest economy . According to analysts, instead of falling should see an increase of 0.5 %. However, the year- on-year retail sales increased by 2.3 %. In this case, a drop in sales m / m may be due to the increase in food prices , everything else points to the improvement of the situation in the country. Indicators of business sentiment are growing steadily .
According to the forecasts of economists , this time it is expected that the growth of total retail sales will reach 0.9 %.
At 9.00 GMT released statistics on the level of consumer price inflation in the euro area. It is reported that up to August CPI fell from 1.6 % to 1.3 % y / y, below the target threshold for inflation , the ECB by 2.0 %. Despite the encouraging signals from the euro zone , investors expect that , as reflected in the Euro elections in Germany.
According to analysts , the CPI will not be different from the previous one and will be 1.3 %.
Tuesday, October 1 .
At 8.00 GMT the euro zone will publish an index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector . Recall, according to statistics from Markit, in August in this area increase was recorded . The level of activity in the manufacturing sector in Spain and Italy also rose after nearly two years of recession. In July in this area have been recorded 51.3 points, and in August, the index was 51.4 points. Italian PMI stood at 51.3 points ( 50.4 in July) , Spanish rose from 49.8 to 51.1 points m / m This in turn indicates that the Euro zone exits the recession.
According to the forecasts of economists , the index of activity in the manufacturing sector in Spain could reach 51.6 points m / m, in Italy are expected to 51.2 points, while the euro zone manufacturing PMI could reach 51.1 points .
At 7.55 GMT published statistics on the change in unemployment in Germany. By the end of July this indicator increased by 7,000 , confounding analysts' expectations about the fall of 5000 . In a separate report indicated that the unemployment rate up to August remained unchanged at 6.8%.
Recall that by the end of the 2nd quarter economic growth of Germany amounted to 0.7 %, but in June, the Bundesbank has revised GDP forecast for 2013 , lowering them to 0.3 % , despite expectations of a gradual recovery of the economy this year .
This time, analysts predict a fall in the number of applications for 5000 .
At 9.00 GMT , there are data on the unemployment rate in the euro area. Despite the growing optimism , the unemployment rate in some countries of the euro area remains high , and the difference between the North and the South continues to grow. In terms of unemployment in countries such as Germany and Greece or Spain remains a huge difference in the number of unemployed , if the labor market in Germany can boast a pretty decent performance , in Spain and Greece remain out of work more than a quarter of residents.
Therefore, despite the overall recovery of the situation in the currency bloc in the foreseeable future, the ECB should maintain a flexible approach to monetary policy.
In general, the level of unemployment by the end of last month remained at a record high of around 12.1%.
Changes in the unemployment rate this time is expected.
Wednesday, October 2 .
At 7.00 GMT published statistics on the change in unemployment in Spain. In August, the number of unemployed did not change and remained at 4.7 million people , while economists had expected a decline of 5.2 million. At the heart of a slight improvement lay increase in the number of tourists.
It is expected that now the number of unemployed could rise to 12,300 people.
At 11.45 GMT will be announced the decision on interest rates, the ECB , and at 12.30 followed by a press conference by the Bank. It seems that Mario Draghi is ready to launch a new phase of the long-term refinancing operations (LTRO), to support the financing of the banking system.
Earlier, the ECB announced interim targets of monetary policy according to which the interest rate will stay low for an extended period of time. At this time the policy change is not expected.
Thursday, October 3 .
In the euro zone will be publishing a number of indexes of purchasing managers in the services sector. By the end of August in Italy, this indicator rose from 48.7 to 48.8 points, indicating a weak domestic demand . Meanwhile, in Spain the same period increased from 48.5 to 50.4 , while the middle of 2011, he was in a recession. Meanwhile, in the euro area , the indicator rose from 49.8 to 50.7 points.
According to the forecasts of economists , the index of activity in the service of Spain may reach 50.9 m / m, in Italy are expected to 49.3 points, while the euro zone PMI could reach 52.1 points .
At 9.00 GMT published statistics on the level of retail sales in Germany.
In July, this area was a growth of 0.1% after falling 0.7 % the month before. In annual terms, retail sales fell 1.3 %. This time, economists expect that this figure will grow by 0.3 %.
Friday, October 4 .
At 6.00 GMT published statistics on the level of producer prices in Germany.
In July, the indicator fell unexpectedly , while analysts expected an increase of 0.2 %. Year- on-year growth rate reached 0.5 % after rising 0.6 % the previous month . Likely to decline due to the fall in prices for finished products (-1 % y / y). This time, analysts predict a rise in retail sales of 0.1%.
That's all for this week , successful bidding!
