Overview:
USD/JPYis going to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the six-month high of 102.37 Thursday. The liquidity is low as the U.S. financial markets closed early (at 1800 GMT) after Thanksgiving. USD/JPY is underpinned by weak yen sentiment amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will take further easing steps if economic growth stumbles and deflationary pressures return; Japan portfolio-flow data shows that residents bought net Y1,405.6 billion of foreign bonds last week, sharply higher than the Y351.5 billion purchases in the previous week. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend.
Technical Comment:
The daily chart positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought; 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.9. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.15. The breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 100.95. The pivot point stands at 101.9.
Resistance levels: 102.65 102.9 103.25
Support levels: 101.6 101.15 100.95
The price zone of 1.3400-1.3460 represented a valuable supply zone that kept the price below for months. However, a significant bullish rejection was expressed around 1.3100 leading to a bullish breakout pattern. According to the final readings of the European Statistical Office disclosed two weeks ago, the European inflation was at 1.1% in September, in line with preliminary projections, while it settled at 1.3% in August. This constituted to the recent bullish jump that took place on October 22. Previous daily candlesticks represented indecision around 1.3800 which initiated bearish retracement towards 1.3450 which failed to provide strong support, and then 1.3280 was tested shortly after. Price zone of 1.3280 - 1.3300 provided strong demand for the pair pushing it higher above 1.3400 - 1.3450 (prominent technical levels). Persistence of the current movement to push above 1.3450 level allows the pair to reach the next supply level around 1.3640 where the price action should be watched. Price level of 1.3640 corresponds not only to a prominent high established on October 7, but also to the upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel depicted on the chart. Based on the market analysis, there is a valid sell entry around 1.3600-1.3640 with SL as daily closure above 1.3670.
Five months ago, a prominent bottom was established around 1.0260. This happened after the intensive bearish momentum that led to monthly low at 1.0254. An important key level was located around 1.0505. This was the key level for the previous weeks movement as the re-closure below it enabled the pair to break down 1.0455 as well, where the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range was located. The nearest support zone was located around 1.0250. On September 19, the pair expressed a false breakdown reaching 1.0180 where obvious bullish rejection was expressed to get the pair back above 1.0250 again resulting in a bullish Hammer weekly candlestick. As expected, the bullish momentum was expressed at retesting of the lower limit of the ongoing channel around 1.0280 pushing it higher towards 1.0460, and then 1.0500 which was bypassed last week. The price level around 1.0470 remains the nearest considerable support for the pair. Last week, the pair failed to break down below 1.0400. Instead, the bulls established an ascending bottom around 1.0400 which invalidated our suggested sell position. Daily fixation above 1.0475 enabled the pair to reach 1.0575-1.0600 where a previous top corresponding to July's highest level is located. Price action should be watched carefully for a possible sell position with SL located above 1.0630. Some bearish price action has been expressed since yesterday to be noted.
Strong bullish sentiment was found at the support zone around 1.4830, which pushed the pair to hit 1.5700, where two prominent tops were established untill the bulls initiated another bullish impulse towards 1.6200 where other two prominent tops were established. It is important to note that the market initially expressed a bearish rejection around 1.6200 (127.2% Fibonacci Expansion) which resulted in an Inverted Hammer weekly candlestick. That is why a bearish movement was expected last weeks provided that the bears continue defending the weekly high at 1.6200. However, the lack of bearish momentum enhanced by the weakness of USD allowed the bulls to step above 1.6200 for a short time until bearish domination came again into the market. The pair had to break down the support level located around 1.6040 (100% Fibo Expansion) which already took place shortly after. However, a bullish rejection was manifested around 1.5860 failing to complete the projected targets of the double-bottom pattern. Instead, the bulls are now pushing above 1.6300 trying to challenge the highest level of 2013 around 1.6340. Note that daily fixation above 1.6200 enabled the pair to express the bullish movement towards 1.6300 where 141.2% Fibo expansion and the backside of the depicted broken uptrend are located. A sell entry may be taken around the current levels of 1.6300-1.6330 upon watching proper bearish price action. SL should be set as daily closure above 1.6350. Yesterday's daily closure is located at 1.6340 which means the bulls are in control of the market till the moment. However, a possible bearish reversal towards 1.6230 is expected.
On October 23, the GBP/USD pair broke initially the 1.6200 handle hitting the area of 1.6250. However, most of the bullish gains were lost when the pair established a Double Top reversal pattern around 1.6200-1.6250. Failure to break down the 1.5900 level was observed last week. Instead, bullish rejection led to another bullish swing again toward 1.6200 (127% Fibo Expansion) which was bypassed so far. As depicted on the chart, the current level around 1.6300 corresponds to the multiple previous tops that were established in 2012. Knowing that 2012's high was around 1.6350, the bulls are trying to record new highs before the end of 2013. The current movement is targeting 1.6350 as long as the bulls are defending the newly established demand zone around 1.6200-1.6250. Bypassing 2012's high around 1.6350 will probably initate a strong bullish swing toward 1.6460 initially. The current bullish impulse was initiated last Thursday as the bulls were applying bullish pressure based on their hopes regarding the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market and the U.S. retail sales which were announced later on the day. Price zone of 1.6325-1.6350 remains a significant supply "resistance" for a possible bearish entry with SL as daily closure above 1.6350.
Overview:
Since our last analysis, Gold has been trading downwards, like we expected. The price tested the level of 1,227.37 on high volume. We expect more bearish continuation. In the daily chart, we can observe no demand bar on volume below the average, which means that Gold may continue with bearish continuation. We are still likely to see it testing the weekly FE level of 161.8% (Weekly third target) at the price of 1,151.00. The current situation in (4H) is that we have got buying climax on upward leg and the broken channel, which is the sign that Gold may continue the downward movement. Since we are in the short-term downtrend in the daily chart, buying Gold looks very risky and I advise you to watch for selling opportunities.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels: R1: 1,242.71
R2: 1,243.85
R3: 1,245.68
Support levels:
S1: 1,239.05
S2: 1,237.91
S3: 1,236.08
Trading recommendation: Operating with the metal, be careful with short-term buying and look for selling opportunities. My recommendation for a downward short-term target is to place it at 1,151.00.
The previous bullish swing targeted 127% Fibonacci Expansion level when the bulls stepped above 1.6035 recording a daily high at 1.6262, which is 70 pips higher than 127.2% Fibonacci Expansion level. On October 23, the GBP/USD pair broke initially the 1.6200 handle hitting the area of 1.6250. However, most of the bullish gains were lost when the pair established a double top reversal pattern around 1.6200-1.6250. That is why a valid sell entry was suggested at 1.6200 which went in our direction towards the neckline around 1.5900. Failure to break down the 1.5900 level was observed last week. Instead, bullish rejection led to another bullish swing towards 1.6040-1.6060 again which was bypassed so far. The current movement as long as fixation above the Demand Zone around 1.6000-1.6040 is the targeting 1.5720 where 127.2% Fibonacci Expansion Level is located. The performance of the U.S. dollar during Thursday's consolidation has been variable; as the bulls were applying bullish pressure based on their hopes regarding the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market and the U.S. retail sales which were announced later on the day. On Friday, the bulls broke above 1.5720 expressing daily closure at 1.6220. However, the previous daily candlestick was a Hanging Man indicating a possible bearish retracement off the current levels towards 1.6040-1.6000. Price zone 1.6200-1.6230 remains a significant supply for a possible bearish entry with SL located above 1.6250.
The price zone of 1.3560-1.3600 represented a valuable supply zone that kept the price below for almost two months. However, lack of bearish follow-up was witnessed around 1.3480. Instead, a significant bullish rejection was expressed leading to a Flag continuation pattern. According to the final readings of the European Statistical Office disclosed one week ago, the European inflation was at 1.1% in September, in line with preliminary projections, while it settled at 1.3% in August. This constituted to the recent bullish jump that took place on October 22. Previous daily candlesticks represented indecision around 1.3800 strongly suggesting bearish retracement towards 1.3700 and then 1.3650 which took place shortly after. The price zone extending between 1.3550-1.3460 was considered as a valuable supply zone. This zone failed to provide a strong support. Instead, bearish breakdown took place with a quite strong momentum leading to breakdown of 1.3400 as well. Price zone 1.3300-1.3330 provided strong demand for the pair pushing it higher above 1.3400 - 1.3450 (prominent technical levels) Persistence of the current movement to get above the 1.3450 level, allowed the pair to reach the next supply level around 1.3560-1.3600 where the price action should be watched. Based on the market analysis, there is a valid sell entry around 1.3560-1.3600 with SL located above 1.3660. However, today's daily closure should be watched as a daily closure above 1.3580 opens the way for further bullish targets around 1.3650, and then 1.3700.
Strong bullish sentiment was found at the support zone around 1.4830, which pushed the pair to the upside to hit 1.5400, and then 1.5700, where two prominent tops were established. Bullish pressure was applied to the area of 1.5430-1.5400 which managed to break through 1.5720, thus matching the August highest level and the recently established top. The market showed an obvious closure above 1.5575 which opened the way towards 1.6000, 1.6170, and then 1.6260. It is important to note that the market expressed bearish rejection from 1.6150-1.6200 which resulted in an Inverted Hammer weekly candlestick. That is why a bearish movement was expected last week provided that the bears continue defending the weekly high at 1.6150. However, the lack of bearish momentum enhanced by the weakness of USD allowed the bulls to step above 1.6200 (127.2% Fibo Expansion) for a short time until bearish domination came back into the market. The pair established a Double Top reversal pattern around 1.6180-1.6200 which provided a valid sell entry, its neckline is located around 1.5900. The pair had to break down the support level located around 1.6040 (100% Fibo Expansion). However, a bullish rejection was manifested around 1.5860 failing to complete the projected targets. Instead, the bulls are pushing today towards 1.6200 trying to test the recent high around 1.6250. Daily fixation above 1.6200 will enable the pair to express bullish movement towards 1.6290 initially where 141.2% Fibo Expansion is located. A sell entry can be taken there upon watching proper bearish price action. SL should be set as daily closure above 1.6300.
Five months ago, a prominent bottom was established around 1.0260. This happened after the intensive bearish momentum that led to 1.0254. An important key level was located around 1.0505. This was the key level for the previous weeks' movement as the re-closure below it enabled the pair to break down 1.0455 as well, where the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range was located. The nearest support zone was located around 1.0250. On September 19, the pair expressed a false breakdown reaching 1.0180 where obvious bullish rejection was expressed to get the pair back above 1.0250 again resulting in a bullish Hammer weekly candlestick. As expected, bullish momentum was expressed at retesting of the lower limit of the ongoing channel around 1.0280 pushing higher towards 1.0460, and then 1.0500 which was bypassed last week. The price level around 1.0470 remains the nearest considerable support for the pair. Last week, the pair failed to break down below 1.0400. Instead, the bulls established an ascending bottom around 1.0400 which invalidated our suggested sell position. Daily fixation above 1.0475 enabled the pair to reach 1.0575 where a previous top corresponding to July's highest level is located. Price action should be watched carefully for a possible sell position with SL located above 1.0610.
In the early morning after the Asian market start, there will be a release of some news from Japan like Monetary Policy Statement; BOJ Press Conference; and during the US market session, there will be a release of some important news such as the US - PPI m/m; US - Unemployment Claims; and some not very important news such as the US - Flash Manufacturing PMI; and the US Natural Gas Storage US - Flash Manufacturing PMI; and the US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index . We predict the price action of this pair will be under moderate volatility within the US session.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 100.89.
Resistance. 2 : 100.69.
Resistance. 1 : 100.36.
Support. 1 : 100.25.
Support. 2 : 100.05.
Support. 3 : 99.85.
DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (99.85) and resistance 3 (100.89). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
After the European market open, there is some news to be released like French Flash Manufacturing PMI; German Flash Manufacturing PMI;Flash Manufacturing PMI; Flash Services PMI. The Consumer Confidence Index is on tap and will be released during the US trading hours. Within the US market session, some news will be released: US - PPI m/m; US - Unemployment Claims; US - Flash Manufacturing PMI; US Natural Gas Storage; and the US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index . So we predict the price action to move under moderate volatility for the whole day today.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY level: 1.3490. Strong Resistance:1.3482. Original Resistance: 1.3469. Inner Sell Area: 1.3456. Target Inner Area: 1.3424. Inner Buy Area: 1.3392. Original Support: 1.3379. Strong Support: 1.3366. Breakout SELL level: 1.3358.
DESCRIPTION:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3379 and 1.3469. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3366 and by 1.3482 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.3358 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above 1.3490 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3392 and at 1.3456, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.3424.
General overview for 21/11/2013 07:50 CET
The alternate count has been invalidated after 135.15 has been broken and the price has slipped a bit below Weekly Pivot level down to 134.10 and reversed. This price progression makes wave X brown is completed as Irregular Flat correction. Moreover, the whole corrective development in wave X is the biggest correction in the upward move from 131.21 and this makes the price and time overbalance here. The red overbalance line has been broken and now the price is close to the breakout above 135.33 zone. If this level is broken , new highs are in view. If this level in not broken, correction might get little more complex in price and time. Support/Resistance:
13593 - Swing High
135.33 - 135.50 - DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE
134.94 - Intraday Support
134.46 - 134.58 - OLD DEMAND ZONE
134.26 - Weekly Pivot
134.09 - Intraday Low
133.70 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
In aticipation of last impulsive wave to the upside, the long side of the market should be in play from levels as close to the 134.94 as possible, with SL below 134.50 and potential TP1 at 136 and TP2 at 136.30.
General overview for 21/11/2013 08:00 CET
After yesterday's invalidation of an immediate bullish impulsive trend resumption, there is still a possibility for a further impulsive trend development however. In this count wave progression might be impulsive as long as the 1.0427 level holds and that progression is way more dynamic that the previous one. The first resistance level would be Intraday Resistance zone at 1.0478. If this level is broken then further upside continuation is anticipated, up to the level of 1.0506 and more ( SUPPLY ZONE).
Support/Resistance:
1.0392 - WS1
1.0404 - DEMAND ZONE
1.0413 - Swing Low
1.0428 - Invalidation Line
1.0435 - Intraday Support
1.0458 - Weekly Pivot
1.0478 - 1.0483 - Technical Resistance Zone | DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE |
1.0412 - WR1
1.0506 - 1.0524 - SUPPLY ZONE
Trading recommendations:
In anticipation of more impulsive wave development to the upside 1.0478 -1.0483 zone should be bought IF there is 1h candle close above the zone. If there is no close above the zone, sell orders should be in play for intraday scalps of 25-30 pips.
General overview for 11/11/2013 14:00 CET
The ZigZag wave WXY brown has been done now and corrective wave up is in progress. The anticipated level for corretion to complete is 50%Fibo area at 133.32. If SUPPLY ZONE is violated then alternate green count is invalidated as well as immediate impulsive wave progression is canceled. Bias is still to the downside as long as SUPPLY ZONE holds.
Support/Resistance: 131.21 - Swing Low | WS1 | 132.19 - Intraday Support 132.45 - Weekly Pivot 132.70 - Intraday Support 133.32 - 50%Fibo Target 133.60 - 133.70 SUPPLY ZONE | WR1
Trading recommendations:
Short positions have two possible enties: - 133.32 with SL above 133.83 and TP below 131.21. - 133.60 with SL above 133.83 and TP below 131.21
General overview for 11/11/2013 14:10 CET
Both targets from last analysis were hit and now there is a first clue to assume that wave c green of wave X brown is done, but so far there is no immediate impulsive trend resumption to the downside to complete the corrective wave progression in wave Y brown. Therefore, I assume one more high is possible with target even on 1.0523 level if SUPPLY zone will be broken in impulive fashion. First hurdle is 61% Fibo at 1.0487 level. On the other hand, the break below beige rectangle is invalidation of the main count and a first clue that top of the wave X brown is in place.
Support/Resistance:
1.0404 - Swing Low 1.0426 - WS1 1.0444 - Intraday Support 1.0460 - Main COunt Invalidation Line 1.0466 - Weekly Pivot 1.0487 - 61%Fibo 1.0501 - Intraday Resistance | First wave X traget Level | 1.0525 - Second wave X Target Level |
Trading recommendations:
As long as DEMAND zone holds, long positions should be in play with entry as close as possible to Weekly Pivot and SL just below 1.0458 and potential TP1 at 1.0500 and TP2 at 1.0525.
Overview:
USD/CHF is trading with bullish bias. The rate is underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment; franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9235 and the second target at 0.9275. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.909 the breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.907. The pivot point stands at 0.914. Resistance levels:
0.9245
0.9275
0.9310
Support levels:
0.914
0.909
0.907
Overview:
NZD/USD is consolidating with risks skewed lower after hitting one-week low 0.8224 on Friday. The rate is undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by strong economic data out of China; firmer commodity prices; Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.822 in view; a breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.819. The pivot point stands at 0.831. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favorably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8365 and the second target at 0.844.
Resistance levels:
0.8365
0.8415
0.844
Support levels:
0.822
0.819
0.8175
Overview:
USD/JPY is trading in higher range. The rate is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.30 versus 80.82 early Friday) after stronger-than-expected U.S. October jobs report (non-farm payrolls increased 204,000 versus +120,000 forecast, unemployment rate came in at 7.3% versus 7.4% forecast) heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could start tapering its $85 billion-a-month quantitative easing program as soon as next month at the Dec. 17-18 meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; higher U.S. Treasury yields; yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 7.26% to 12.9; S&P surged 1.34% Friday) as investors bet the U.S. economy would be strong enough to withstand a Fed's withdrawal of stimulus, while strong data out of China (China's industrial production rose 10.3% on year in October, beating +10.0% forecast; exports rebounded 5.6% on year in October after falling 0.3% in September) boosted the outlook for global growth. But dollar sentiment dented by worse-than-expected drop in University of Michigan November sentiment index to 72.0 in early November (versus 74.4 forecast) for lowest reading since December 2011. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales. Bond markets in U.S. are shut today for Veterans Day.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages are rising; but stochastics is bearish near overbought. Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 99.65 and the second target at 99.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 98.55 the breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 98.25. The pivot point stands at 98.35. Resistance levels:
99.65
99.95
100.35
Support levels:
98.55
98.25
97.95
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analyses the USDCAD pair has been trading upwards, corrective wave .y (coloured black) of the bigger wave b (coloured blue) has been developing. During Monday's Asian and European sessions, we could observe descending movements from 1.0427 towards the 1.0396 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity pair did not manage to hold this level and the price retraced back to the 1.0426 level. At the moment, the USDCAD pair is trading around the 1.0438 level, and we should see one more push lower today in the FLAT correction in the .y wave (coloured black). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave B should retrace 50% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 1.0382 (50% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 1.0453 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0372 (S2) 1.0385 (S1) 1.0402 (PP) 1.0415 (R1) 1.0432 (R2) 1.0445 (R3) 1.0462
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downwards movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.0410 with stop loss at 1.0453 and take profit at 1.0382 are recommended.
