The markets have not decided on the direction of movement after the recent decision of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market . Last week, escalated the issue of public debt in the United States, which has a negative impact on the positions of the U.S. currency. The Republicans are not going to go to the mortar as long as Obama does not give up its healthcare law . If by October 1, disputes can not be resolved , the government threatens to dissolve , and the country - default . While markets were quiet in silent anticipation. As for the euro zone , Mario Draghi reiterated the possibility of using long-term refinancing operations (LTRO). Bank of England Governor Mark Carney , it seems, does not intend to extend stimulus measures .
With the beginning of a new quarter summary of economic news will please investors with its diversity . This week in the U.S. are purchasing managers indexes and statistics on employment outside of agriculture , and the Fed Chairman will deliver a speech . In Australia, the eurozone and Japan will be made public on major decisions of central banks interest rates.
Now more about the most significant drivers of the market.
Monday, September 30 .
At 12.30 GMT in Canada will be published data on GDP . As you know, in June indicator deteriorated by -0.5 % m / m (forecast +0.4 % ) due to a flood in one of the Canadian provinces. Reading was the worst since March 2009 , however, the consequences of floods are unlikely to be sustainable, as analysts predict improvement in the pace of growth in the 3rd quarter to 2-2.5 %. In July of active component will likely be 0.6 % m / m
Tuesday, October 1 :
In Australia, at 4.30 we will know the decision of the central bank on the basic interest rate. As is known , the minimum level of 2.5 % was maintained, despite the talk of a possible downgrade rates. No change this time is not expected.
At 14.00, the index will be released in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing . In August, the pace of development in the manufacturing sector were the fastest in the last 2 years (55.7 points). This indicates an increase in activity in this area. Now, according to the experts , you can count on 55.3 points .
Wednesday, October 2 .
At 11.45 the European Central Bank will publish its decision on the basic interest rate , and at 12.30 will be a press conference by the ECB. The Central Bank is likely to keep the same course of monetary policy. Changing the time reference points at this stage could undermine confidence in the bank . In his speech, Mario Draghi is likely to once again express caution about the pace of economic growth. If the head of the European Central Bank will announce again the possibility of another long-term financing operation , it can weaken the single currency.
At 12.15 GMT will be announced change in the number of employees from ADP. In August, the number of workers in the U.S. economy has grown by 176,000 people , as expected by experts . At this time the projected increase in 177,000 jobs.
At 19.30 GMT will be the speech of Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman , in St. Louis. The issue of the U.S. debt ceiling is likely to once again be on the agenda, which may cause increased volatility in the markets.
Thursday, October 3 .
The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in the United States will be published in 12.30 GMT. Last week, fewer Americans applied for financial aid. Thus, the figure fell by 5,000 to 305,000 claims. Employers are confident in the growth of sales and the strengthening of the U.S. economy , in spite of the reduction in government spending in Washington. At this time, according to analysts, you can count on 315,000 hits.
At 14.00 GMT will be issued non-manufacturing index ISM. In August, it reached an 8- year high of 58.6 points. In the July 56 recorded points. Now, economists believe that the September value could reach 57.2 points.
Friday, October 4 .
The Bank of Japan will publish the decision on the basic interest rate. At the end of the last meeting in September , the former monetary policy unchanged. In this case, the government incentive program has yielded positive results. The Bank of Japan has confirmed the presence of a gradual economic recovery. Earlier interest rates at this time is unlikely to be changed.
At 12.30 GMT the United States , there are data on employment in the non-agricultural sector. In August the index rose by 169,000 workers, which is below the expected 178,000 people. The data for the previous month was revised downward to 104,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3 %. The number of unemployed in August fell to 11.3 million people. In September, economists predict an improvement of 179,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is likely to remain the same ( 7.3 %). After the September Fed's decision to reduce the probability of asset purchase program in October increases. However, the Committee may defer these steps until December . It seems that only in the case if the number of non-farm employment will exceed 200,000 workers, and the last value will be revised to a significant improvement , the markets will expect to change the incentives of the program in October.
That's all for this week , successful bidding!
