China's economy marched forward the final quarter of 2013 with an acceleration in exports and manufacturing, momentum that offered confidence to Communist leaders gathering to determine policy shifts for the approaching decade. Industrial output skyrocketed an above forecast 10.3 percent from a year earlier in October and manufacturing investment build up, according to data disseminated November 9. by the National Bureau of Statistics. Customs data the past day displayed overseas sales bounced back by more than estimated. Economic Summit About 370 top Communist Party members including government ministers, military officers and heads of state-owned companies are gathering in Beijing for a meeting known as the third plenum to decide on the scale and pace of changes in the world’s second-biggest economy. A communique will be released after the meeting ends outlining the road-map. Longest Stretch October’s industrial output growth exceeded the 10 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and the previous month’s 10.2 percent. Gains have exceeded 10 percent in each of the past three months, the longest stretch since the end of 2011, excluding January and February distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Leverage Pullback The People’s Bank of China will report October money supply, new loans and aggregate financing, its broadest measure of credit, this week. Bottom Line China needs annual expansion of 7.2 percent a year to keep unemployment stable, Li said in a speech last month, and previously indicated a “bottom line” of 7 percent would be tolerated as the government implements reforms to shift the country away from a reliance on investment and exports. Economic expansion of 7.6 percent this year would be down from 7.7 percent in 2012 and the same pace as 1999, which was the weakest expansion since 1990. “Although growth momentum is weakening, some reform measures, such as hukou and rural land, as well as fiscal reform, could boost domestic demand and efficiency, and make it possible for the economy to sustain above 7.2 percent growth,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho in Hong Kong. “The question is how determined the new leadership is to overcome vested interests to push for fast implementation of these reforms.”
